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Resurrection Of The Handwritten Letter
- email losing relevance with the younger generation is _not_ baloney. My 12-year old daughter and pretty much all her friends' primary communication device is not mobile, it's their PCs or laptops. And they don't use it for email (or hardly at all), but for IM. I'm am 100% certain that email has very little relevance with that generation, and am equally certain that this has nothing to do with their communication devices being mobile.
- while companies' primary communication method right now may be email, there is nothing that says that this is set in stone. It's not a one-way street: while it may be true that once these youngsters are getting jobs they may be forced to use email, I think it's at least as true (I'd would say more so) that these youngsters will change the way corporate communications work.
On your second point, I agree that younger peoples' preferences will influence corporate communications. But I think it will happen slower than most think, and it won't come at the complete expense of email usage.
But what is most important is that what you say seems surprising to us all. The cause of our surprise is nothing else than our misplaced web 2.0-tool myopia. Otherwise, if we had really understood web 2.0, the 'social web', there would be no need for you to write this post. Thanks.
IM and SMS use is considerably lower than email in the general population, but these modes of communicating definitely spike for younger Broadbanders. I agree with you that email isn't going away. What's more likely is that as the teens mature into professionals, they will use multiple ways of communicating. How many of use receive facebook updates by email and sms?
I also agree that Web 2.0 excitement is skewing value in the market. For a direct comparison, let's look at Yahoo (31B market cap) v Facebook (15B valuation). Yahoo is used regularly by 65% of the U.S. Broadband population. Yahoo Groups is used by 15% of the broadband population. Facebook is used by 11%. That's quite a spread and I'm not even including other aspects of Yahoo (Flickr for instance). Yahoo has a lot of work to do to fix their positioning and marketing toward Madison Avenue, but I'd rather be in their shoes than trying to devise a business plan to justify a 15B valuation and risk the trust of my user base. (That's another topic, but suffice it to say that it wouldn't have required much research to test Beacon appropriately before dropping it into the market.)
Email and social networking will be intertwined for a long time to come. Colleagues who depart from a company don't take their email with them. Finding them through social networks provide a new channel by which we reconnect and rekindle relationships. No communication channel is perfect anymore. I doubt we will ever return to just one way of communicating online again. The youth today, with their copious free time, are learning the tricks of managing multiple communication channels to tune into the messages that they want to receive, when and wherever they are.
It's a good post, Max. We'll have to take this into account as we revise our 2005 blog cover on BW.